Second Round Won't be First Rate

The NBA’s version of the elite eight doesn’t offer too many surprises.

Yes, it’s a bit unexpected not to find Tim Duncan and the four-time champion Spurs still going, along with the Hornets, the team many thought might be their successors. But in the East, other than seeing Dwyane Wade and Heat fizzle out badly in Game 7 in Atlanta, it’s gone according to form.<

The one variable was the classic seven game duel the Celtics and Bulls put on, which featured some 170 lead changes and seven overtime. Ultimately, though, even without Kevin Garnett, who did not stage a Willis Reed-like return for Game 7, Boston championship mettle—plus a raucous Garden crowd—proved the difference.

Which brings us to the second round, already underway, though these predictions were hermetically sealed beforehand. While some may be looking for more of the same in terms of competitiveness, don’t be so sure. In fact upsets, not to mention long, drawn out series, will not be the second round order of the day.
EAST

Celtics (2) vs. Magic (3)
The epic series to end all epic series with the Bulls finally over, it doesn’t figure to get any easier for the reigning champion Celtics, who open second round play vs. the returning Dwight Howard and the Orlando Magic tonight.<

Instead of rookie sensation Derrick Rose, Ben Gordon and John Salmons to worry about, now the men in green must deal with Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu. Rather than banging heads against Joakim Noah and Brad Miller in the paint, it’s Howard, the League’s leading rebounder and shot-blocker, as well as the NBA’s Defensive Player of the Year. And rather than matching wits with first year coach Vinny DelNegro, now it’s Stan Van Gundy, not so affectionately known to Shaquille O’Neal as the “master of panic.’’ <

Still, it’s hard to imagine the Celtics being pushed any harder to the limit than they were by the Bulls, who extended them to seven games, incorporating seven overtimes, before Paul Pierce, Ray Allen & Co. somehow survived. The difference between the Magic and Bulls is the man in the middle.

Howard can take games over by himself, as the Sixers learned in the opening round. But Philadelphia doesn’t have the kind of inside game as the Celts, with rugged Kendrick Perkins and fast-improving Glen “Big Baby’’ Davis. And they certainly didn’t have a 1-2 offensive punch like Pierce and Allen, either of whom can go off without warning. Don’t forget Rajon Rondo, who might’ve been Boston’s best player in the series, either.

The Magic struggled longer than expected before finally taking care of Philly. In the process they learned they’re much more than Howard and bunch of nobodies. Against the Celtics, who are feeling the loss of Garnett more and more each day, though, they’ll encounter a team with much more confidence, composure and resilience
That, plus home court gives the champs the edge.<
Celtics in six.<

Cavs (1) vs. Hawks (4)
The LeBron show now shifts its attention to the Atlanta Hawks, the conventional wisdom being that the NBA’s newly named MVP and his Cleveland Cavalier cohorts will quickly turn the lights out in Georgia. After quickly disposing of the Pistons in four straight, the Cavs will encounter an Atlanta team far more athletic and explosive.<

Joe Johnson and Mike Bibby, along with sixth man Flip Murray supply the bulk of the firepower. Josh Smith and Al Horford clean up inside, though Smith can be a factor anywhere on the court. And Atlanta’s Phillips Arena has become one of the League’s wilder home courts.

The problem for the Hawks is they’re facing the team with THE wildest home court in the Cavs, who’ve added enough pieces around LeBron—Mo Williams, Delonte West, Anderson Varejao. They’re also facing a team that is on a mission, believing its destiny is win a championship—NOW!

The Hawks, even after finishing off Wade and the Heat won’t stand in their way for long.<
Cavs in five,<
WEST

Nuggets (2) vs. Mavericks (6)

Back in November—before Chauncey Billups arrived to resurrect their season, most people thought the only significant win the Denver Nuggets might have this year would be in the Lottery. No one—and that includes people in Colorado—seriously though this team could be a contender,

But once Billups went into the mix and Allen Iverson came out Denver was transformed. Not only did Billups become the focal point of the offense, making it infinitely easier for Carmelo Anthony and the rest, he revitalized the entire franchise.

Suddenly George Karl could do no wrong from the Nuggets bench, getting spectacular play from J.R,. Smith, Dahntay Jones and especially Chris “Birdman’’ Andersen, the shot blocking super sub whose spiked hair and multicolored tattooed arms have endeared him the fan base.

Together, they led the Nuggets to 54 wins and the Northwest Division title, followed by complete first round domination of the Hornets—including a 58-point massacre in Game 4—and now a convincing first game win over Dallas.

Look for Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd & Co. to try to find a solution to the myriad of problems Denver creates. But look for them to come up empty. The Nuggets are headed to the Conference Finals for the first time since 1977.<

Nuggets in five.

Lakers (1) vs. Rockets (5)

Even before the Rockets put away Brandon Roy and the Trail Blazers in six games, the rumblings had started Kobe Bryant was in the battle of his life going against Shane Battier and Ron Artest in this highly anticipated second-round match. It seemed a forgone conclusion they would ultimately lock horns, the Conference Finals seeming the likely spot before Houston tumbled for a possible No. 2 to No. 5 seed—and into the Lakers bracket—the final night of the regular season.

So here it is! Not only Kobe going for step 2 in his championship quest, but a chance for Yao Ming to shine in the spotlight, as he makes his first ever second round playoff appearance and the Rockets’ first since 1997. And hoops fans will get to appreciate Houston power forward Luis Scola, who does all the dirty work.

But for all they have—and it’s a lot to be sure—the Lakers have that much more. They have Pau Gasol, who’s out to prove he’s not the softy the Celtics pushed around in last year’s Finals. And Lamar Odom, who can score, rebound and pass the ball. And maybe even Andrew Bynum, who wasn’t much of a factor in the Utah series, but will give Yao another big body to contend with.

Look for Kobe not to try to force things, especially early, but to impose his will when it counts the most. And the rest of Phil Jackson’s gang will make their presence felt, too, setting the stage for another trip to the Conference Finals

Lakers in five.


But after going only 5-3 in the first round (missing on the Hawks, Nuggets and Mavs) be forewarned: none of these are hardly a sure thing.